I was speaking with my conservative...ultra conservative friend yesterday. We are working out together and being on the eliptical machine for an hour goes SO much faster when you have someone who likes to talk with you. Anyway, we never discuss politics, she is way to the right of ultra conservative and I am...well, liberal to say the least. But she shocked me. She said that if the entire Foley thing turned out hurting the republicans, it served them right. She believes very strongly in the conservative agenda but feels that they have all been charlatans.
I said, we need people of integrity, and I named my personal choice of president - Barack Obama. I was stunned when she agreed wholeheartedly with me. First generation American, true understanding of a work ethic, real pride, real character. She was as moved as I was by his keynote address at the convention.
Very exciting.
Is Obama Ready to Roll?
The Illinois Democrat may be more serious about '08 than you think
WEB EXCLUSIVE
By Jonathan Alter
Newsweek
Updated: 4:52 p.m. CT Oct 4, 2006
Oct. 4, 2006 - Ask Washington insiders about Sen. Barack Obama's presidential hopes, and you'll get a pat response: great idea, a cycle or three from now--or maybe this time as veep. But they need to get out more. I’ve talked to Democrats in 10 cities in the last four months and found Obama fever throughout the Democratic Party. Besides an online Al Gore boomlet, no one else raises a reaction anything like it. More impressively, there's now a distinct possibility that Obama may seize the moment and run in '08. A close associate introduces a note of caution: “I’d put the chances right now at no better than 50 percent,” he told me Tuesday, as Obama taped Oprah’s show in Chicago. Fifty percent? For Obama-hungry Democrats, those are much better odds than they’ve assumed. Whatever happens in the midterms, ’08 could get very exciting, very fast.
Among a few prominent Democrats, the conversation has changed from "we wish he would" to "we hear he will." Obama has made no formal decision and probably won’t until the end of the year. By then, his new book, "The Audacity of Hope," which hits bookstores Oct. 17, is almost certain to be a best seller. Both Colin Powell in 1995 and John McCain in 1999 used books to launch feverish speculation about presidential bids. In Powell’s case, he decided not to run, largely for family reasons.
If Obama declines to make a bid, the explanation will be along the same lines. He has two young daughters and a formidable wife, Michelle, who is no Nancy Reagan, Hillary Clinton or Elizabeth Edwards. In other words, she will not push her husband to run, though it’s not likely she will prevent him from doing so, says a source close to the senator, who declines to be identified talking about family matters. It will be a decision between the two of them. You have to be a bit nuts to run for president, and in the end the Obamas might be too normal and grounded to put their family through it.
But contrary to popular assumption, Obama's aides see no political reasons not to make the race. His advisers believe his mere four years in the Senate will not be a liability (Abraham Lincoln ran after two years in the House, Woodrow Wilson after two years as governor, and Franklin D. Roosevelt, Jimmy Carter and now Mitt Romney after four years as governor.) “The Senate is a political tomb,” says one. The longer one stays, the more controversial votes one casts. Gravitas and knowledge about the issues are not problems for Obama, who is plenty fluent on the issues, even if he hasn't established much of a record yet. He has emerged as an unlikely friend and ally of GOP Sen. Richard Lugar, who will acknowledge Obama’s depth on foreign policy.
The Obama campaign right now was described to me as a “concept” rather than a “plan.” The concept is that Obama is a positive, aspirational figure who appeals to a yearning in the country for a unifying, almost spiritual vision that moves beyond the tired arguments of left versus right. At a more prosaic level, the “concept” would call for a massive black-voter-registration campaign in the South while continuing his crossover appeal to moderate white voters. On the Iraq war, the critical issue for Democratic primary voters, Obama is perfectly positioned. He opposed the war from the beginning, with an articulate denunciation of the Bush policy as a distraction from the war on terror. In other words, he was four years ahead of the curve. By contrast, John Edwards is in the uncomfortable position of having said he was wrong to support the war. Hillary Clinton is even worse off. She has yet to acknowledge the obvious: that if she knew then what she knows now, she would have voted against the war instead of for it. If both Obama and Clinton run, he would quickly best her on this issue, which all of her "early money" would do little to counteract.
In the primaries, Obama would run as a moderate who is unsullied by connection to the old Democratic Party. In fact, his new book will be a bit critical of Democrats, calling them “confused” and “the party of reaction.” (Obama wrote it himself, as he did his first book. He is one of the best writers to enter modern politics.) Rather than being defensive about that depiction, many Democrats know it’s true. They want to be transported to a new place. They admire Hillary but don’t see her doing that. And in my anecdotal experience, they like his chances in a general election better than hers—though running as the first African-American Democratic nominee would obviously be a challenge.
Obama knows that if he runs, some of the allure will immediately fade. That argues for delaying as long as possible, in order to remain the shimmering hope out over the horizon. The argument for deciding sooner is that he would need to build a national organization to compete with Clinton’s. Hillary enjoys a formidable advantage in fund-raising. But if he gets going in early 2007, he could close the gap quickly. The demand for him to come in to raise money and campaign for Democratic candidates this year far outstrips the demand for the same from Hillary or anyone else. And his handlers are already keeping close tabs on Edwards's early success in organizing Iowa Democrats.
As a rookie presidential candidate, Obama would have little margin for error. One false move and he’s done. But the man’s got brains and political talent to burn. The chatter about him within the party grows louder by the day.
I said, we need people of integrity, and I named my personal choice of president - Barack Obama. I was stunned when she agreed wholeheartedly with me. First generation American, true understanding of a work ethic, real pride, real character. She was as moved as I was by his keynote address at the convention.
Very exciting.
Is Obama Ready to Roll?
The Illinois Democrat may be more serious about '08 than you think
WEB EXCLUSIVE
By Jonathan Alter
Newsweek
Updated: 4:52 p.m. CT Oct 4, 2006
Oct. 4, 2006 - Ask Washington insiders about Sen. Barack Obama's presidential hopes, and you'll get a pat response: great idea, a cycle or three from now--or maybe this time as veep. But they need to get out more. I’ve talked to Democrats in 10 cities in the last four months and found Obama fever throughout the Democratic Party. Besides an online Al Gore boomlet, no one else raises a reaction anything like it. More impressively, there's now a distinct possibility that Obama may seize the moment and run in '08. A close associate introduces a note of caution: “I’d put the chances right now at no better than 50 percent,” he told me Tuesday, as Obama taped Oprah’s show in Chicago. Fifty percent? For Obama-hungry Democrats, those are much better odds than they’ve assumed. Whatever happens in the midterms, ’08 could get very exciting, very fast.
Among a few prominent Democrats, the conversation has changed from "we wish he would" to "we hear he will." Obama has made no formal decision and probably won’t until the end of the year. By then, his new book, "The Audacity of Hope," which hits bookstores Oct. 17, is almost certain to be a best seller. Both Colin Powell in 1995 and John McCain in 1999 used books to launch feverish speculation about presidential bids. In Powell’s case, he decided not to run, largely for family reasons.
If Obama declines to make a bid, the explanation will be along the same lines. He has two young daughters and a formidable wife, Michelle, who is no Nancy Reagan, Hillary Clinton or Elizabeth Edwards. In other words, she will not push her husband to run, though it’s not likely she will prevent him from doing so, says a source close to the senator, who declines to be identified talking about family matters. It will be a decision between the two of them. You have to be a bit nuts to run for president, and in the end the Obamas might be too normal and grounded to put their family through it.
But contrary to popular assumption, Obama's aides see no political reasons not to make the race. His advisers believe his mere four years in the Senate will not be a liability (Abraham Lincoln ran after two years in the House, Woodrow Wilson after two years as governor, and Franklin D. Roosevelt, Jimmy Carter and now Mitt Romney after four years as governor.) “The Senate is a political tomb,” says one. The longer one stays, the more controversial votes one casts. Gravitas and knowledge about the issues are not problems for Obama, who is plenty fluent on the issues, even if he hasn't established much of a record yet. He has emerged as an unlikely friend and ally of GOP Sen. Richard Lugar, who will acknowledge Obama’s depth on foreign policy.
The Obama campaign right now was described to me as a “concept” rather than a “plan.” The concept is that Obama is a positive, aspirational figure who appeals to a yearning in the country for a unifying, almost spiritual vision that moves beyond the tired arguments of left versus right. At a more prosaic level, the “concept” would call for a massive black-voter-registration campaign in the South while continuing his crossover appeal to moderate white voters. On the Iraq war, the critical issue for Democratic primary voters, Obama is perfectly positioned. He opposed the war from the beginning, with an articulate denunciation of the Bush policy as a distraction from the war on terror. In other words, he was four years ahead of the curve. By contrast, John Edwards is in the uncomfortable position of having said he was wrong to support the war. Hillary Clinton is even worse off. She has yet to acknowledge the obvious: that if she knew then what she knows now, she would have voted against the war instead of for it. If both Obama and Clinton run, he would quickly best her on this issue, which all of her "early money" would do little to counteract.
In the primaries, Obama would run as a moderate who is unsullied by connection to the old Democratic Party. In fact, his new book will be a bit critical of Democrats, calling them “confused” and “the party of reaction.” (Obama wrote it himself, as he did his first book. He is one of the best writers to enter modern politics.) Rather than being defensive about that depiction, many Democrats know it’s true. They want to be transported to a new place. They admire Hillary but don’t see her doing that. And in my anecdotal experience, they like his chances in a general election better than hers—though running as the first African-American Democratic nominee would obviously be a challenge.
Obama knows that if he runs, some of the allure will immediately fade. That argues for delaying as long as possible, in order to remain the shimmering hope out over the horizon. The argument for deciding sooner is that he would need to build a national organization to compete with Clinton’s. Hillary enjoys a formidable advantage in fund-raising. But if he gets going in early 2007, he could close the gap quickly. The demand for him to come in to raise money and campaign for Democratic candidates this year far outstrips the demand for the same from Hillary or anyone else. And his handlers are already keeping close tabs on Edwards's early success in organizing Iowa Democrats.
As a rookie presidential candidate, Obama would have little margin for error. One false move and he’s done. But the man’s got brains and political talent to burn. The chatter about him within the party grows louder by the day.
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